2018 - NAND and DRAM Thanks for the Memories, Now for a Change

3D NAND and Memories – Are we in a minor Blip or a full on Memory Recession?

MONTEREY, Calif., April 10, 2019 – 2018 was banner year for Flash, DRAM and Non Volatile Memory. The large profitability of the segment occluded the disconnect between realistic demand and an overenthusiastic supply until reality struck in Q4 last year. The usual utterances of “Blip”, “confined to the H2” and the like permeated nervous conversations regarding future market conditions. The further that we “slog” into the continuing market malaise the facts of double and triple ordering have surfaced once again. Where did all that “convertible bandwidth” that needed “storage” go? At this point its recommended that a good read to explain our 20/20 hindsight is Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s book “The Black Swan – The Impact of the Highly Improbable”. What was highly improbable 6 months ago is now fact. How did we fail to see this coming? Not to worry as we’ll explain.

During periods of high profitability no one in their right mind shakes the boat is a good way to part company from their employer. Recessionary times bring out the best in travel budgets for new memory device development teams as they’re generally used to scrape together a reason to open the door for customer visits. Getting the customers attention through the promise of the new and the exciting is an age old tactic that seems to work well for marketing and sometimes sales. Key to this tactic is having something to talk about when you get to the customers location.

Usually these meetings go from how the visiting company views market conditions and how they see them improving followed by the new stuff and a high level technology person explaining the details. This is then followed by action items and goodbyes. This usual pro-forma business meeting agenda is quickly dissolving as the market evolution this time around is changing rapidly in context and technology.

Intel has finally introduced their Optane systems that use “their” 3D XPoint PCM memory and are on a roll to release at least one product a week. This is against some sort of rule wherein you don’t attempt to compete with your customers. Intel isn’t competing with their customers they are supplying them with technology that no one else can deliver.

On top of that Intel has kept their future plans secret though over time small planned leaks are published. Webfeet research views this strategy as being a completely new version of Intel’s desire to remain dominant as the lead element within the Server Class community.

Intel’s competitors are still taking notes and haven’t divulged how they intend to respond to what appears to be a well-planned campaign. Yes, everyone complains about the 4 year gestation of Optane but the fact stands that they are shipping a product that they have sole ownership of.

Webfeet detected this plan several years ago realizing that Intel might be going for a market tier above that based on NAND-Flash. One that mimed DDR4 DRAM but at lower speed and durability but would allow the directly addressable memory space to expand into the realms needed to satisfy the demands of the In-Memory Compute server segment. The absurd part of the story is everyone waited patiently for Intel to announce.

We now see companies becoming partners of Intel to take advantage of the Optane environment in which they will also become eligible to use Intel/Altera FPGAs to accelerate application specific In-Memory algorithms to pursue lucrative high margin vertical applications while the rest are waiting for Intel to become involved at JEDEC so they can begin also.

If this is irritating there’s even more to come, so as the French say, get used to it because that’s the way it is.

Even with the Q4 price decline the 2018 Flash memory market performed much better than expected with revenues above $60 billion, an increase of 13.2% from 2017.  The NAND Flash market followed suit at 13.8%, while the NOR market grew sluggishly from 2017 by only 3.1 %. Samsung was again the 2018 revenue market leader for all NV Memories and NAND, Macronix barely maintained itself as the NOR Flash leader closely followed by Winbond and Cypress. STMicro reaffirmed the number one position in EEPROM, Cypress remained the NVRAM market leader, and Winbond held the serial NOR leadership position. This report discusses long term memory cycles including the conditions leading to the current market predicament, are we in a slight correction or a full on memory recession, is the transition from von Neuman computing (Memory and Storage) moving quickly to Persistent Memory-centric computing, and how fast are the emerging NVMs growing including XPoint as well as the emergence of NRAM.

The 2018 Non Volatile Memory Market Shares by Vendor report, CS700MS-2019, includes market shares by vendor for total Non Volatile Memory, NAND Flash, NOR Flash, serial NOR Flash, total EEPROM, serial EEPROM, parallel EEPROM, OTP ROM (EPROM and Mask ROM), and NVRAM (NVSRAM, RTC, MRAM, FeRAM/FeFET, PCM, XPoint, RRAM, NRAM and Others).  Annual revenue forecasts are provided from 2017-2024 for the EEPROM, OTP ROM, and NVRAM markets. In addition, the NVSRAM market shares are broken out by vendor for Real Time Clocks (RTC) and NVSRAM from 2013-2018.  This report, CS700MS-2019, is available for $2.5K and for providers of the market share data they can obtain the report with a $500 discount.  WebFeet Research also has forecast the serial EEPROM (conservative and aggressive) and the NVSRAM (nvSRAM, RTC) from 2015-2024 by density for revenue, units, and ASPs, and for the serial EEPROM by interface type.  Each of these additional forecasts are priced at $500 and come in excel format.  This report is vital for the seasoned memory professional as well as the casual market observer.

About WebFeet Research   

Headquartered in Monterey, California, WebFeet Research provides business consulting and market research services in the memory and storage markets, with a focus on nonvolatile memory, solid state storage technologies and cognitive computing. For further information, please contact:

Alan Niebel

WebFeet Research, Inc

w3.webfeetresearch.com

alan.niebel@web-feetresearch.com

Tel: 831.373.3303

Code Storage Flash Market - Who will Win Serial NOR or SPI NAND?

Will the nascent serial NOR market continue its comeback through IoT and Automotive?  Who is pushing the edge of Code Storage Flash? Will high density serial NOR coexist with SPI NAND?

MONTEREY, CA., October 29, 2018 – WebFeet Research, Inc., an industry leading Non Volatile Memory and Storage market research firm, releases the first annual report Code Storage Flash Forecast - SPI NAND and Serial NOR Flash SWOT Analysis, which provides the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) analysis of the six top serial NOR and SPI NAND vendors. An extensive forecast of the SLC/SPI NAND and NOR market shows the rise of revenues well beyond the $4.2 Billion shipped in 2017. This report recognizes the emergence of Code Storage Flash that supplies non volatile memory for applications needing mid-range densities (256Mbit-8Gbit). Since 3D NAND is over provisioned for use in IoT sensors and most Edge computing, many of the Code Storage vendors supply (1-8Gbit) SLC and SPI NAND.  Over the forecast period, the SPI NAND volumes will overtake SLC NAND since the IoT users will convert from a parallel interface to serial NAND. Mid-high density serial NOR will migrate to SPI NAND for cost reasons, which strengthens the SPI NAND market share.

The SWOT covers Micron, Cypress, Macronix, Winbond, Toshiba and GigaDevice who produce 85% of the serial NOR revenue and nearly all the SPI NAND. Besides covering these players, this analysis provides a serial NOR revenue forecast to 2022 by vendor for geographic segmentation. In addition, the vendor serial NOR monthly wafer production by wafer size is calculated from 2014-2020. On the application side, there are serial NOR and SLC/SPI NAND forecasts for revenue, units, and MBs for over 30 end-use applications. In addition, the Serial NOR, Parallel NOR, SPI, and SLC NAND are forecast by revenue and units by density for over twelve end applications.  As autonomous vehicles gain prominence, WebFeet provides Flash forecasts for each level of vehicle autonomy and illustrates the Flash usage for each of the automotive systems. Finally, WebFeet forecasts the serial NOR automotive revenue by Flash supplier through 2022. 

For the marketing, finance or strategic planning professional this report is essential. The Code Storage Flash Forecast - SPI NAND and Serial NOR Flash SWOT Analysis report, CS575CA-2018, is available for purchase from WebFeet Research in PDF format at $4,995.

About WebFeet Research   

Headquartered in Monterey, California, WebFeet Research provides business consulting and market research services in the memory and storage markets, with a focus on nonvolatile memory, solid state storage technologies and cognitive computing. For further information, please contact:

Alan Niebel

WebFeet Research, Inc

w3.webfeetresearch.com

alan.niebel@web-feetresearch.com

O: 831.373.3303

M: 831.402.5754

WFR's SSD Market Analysis – NVMe here, NVDIMM coming

How are high performance SSDs impacting the Enterprise, Client and Commercial applications? 

Who is pushing the edge of SSD and Controllers: intelligent processing of NVMe storage, compression and Object storage?

MONTEREY, CA., August 7, 2017 – As the SSD market advances in 2017, the long-anticipated rollout of All Flash Arrays featuring NVMe is finally finding traction at the high end of the enterprise market. Making the transition from SATA and SAS to PCIe and NVMe has been fraught with delays in standardizing the NVMe protocols and the development of an Ethernet- type fabric based on the NVMe protocol (NVMf).  Overall, the SSD market has grown significantly in all three markets: enterprise, client and commercial reaching a market volume of $41 billion by 2021. With the adoption of new interfaces like NVMe and the Memory Channel, and embracing emerging media like 3D NAND and Persistent Memory (ReRAM / XPoint) the industry is undergoing a transformation. The old computing storage model is unable to keep up with the amount of data needed to be stored. It needs to merge storage into memory in order to process in real time more complex data, diverse data types and much higher volume of data anticipated through 2021.

WebFeet Research, Inc., an industry leading Non Volatile Memory and Storage market research firm, released the twelfth annual report Solid State Drives (SSD) Markets and Applications 2017 report, SS300SSD-2017. This report concentrates on the enterprise market and quantifies the emergence of PCIe, NVMe (U.2 and M.2) and NVDIMM SSDs as well as forecasting the client and commercial markets.  It addresses the difficulty of migrating from HDD to SSD and to Hybrid and All Flash storage systems while advancing the ‘intelligent processing’ of memory and storage.

For the executive, marketing, or finance professional this report is vital. When combined with the SSD and Controller SWOT report, SS350SWOT-2017, the reader will have a comprehensive view of the SSD market from the forecast to knowing which companies are providing the latest in SSD and controller offerings.

Testimonials

"The 2017 Webfeet report on the Solid State Drive market is the most comprehensive and insightful report I have seen to-date on this subject. It covers NVMe in all form factors: PCIe, U.2, M.2 as well as defining the NVDIMM memory channel. This timely report will be of significant value to SSD sellers and users alike."  Daniel Mahoney, Director, Smart HRS

About WebFeet Research   

Headquartered in Monterey, California, WebFeet Research provides business consulting and market research services in the memory and storage markets, with a focus on nonvolatile memory and solid state storage technologies. For further information, please contact:

Alan Niebel

WebFeet Research, Inc

w3.webfeetresearch.com

alan.niebel@web-feetresearch.com

Tel: 831.869.8274

The Future of Non Volatile Memory in Cognitive Computing

The confluence of Big Data, IoT, Real-Time Analytics and Cognitive Computing are forcing a complete rethinking of the hardware computing baseline from the ground up. Pressure to stay current with ever larger investments in cloud and enterprise hardware has vendors second guessing whether they will be overcome, or more appropriately engulfed by tomorrow’s architectural developments.

At the base of this stack is the storage crossover from hard disk drives to solid state drives. This change alone decreased latency of data available for processor execution by 100 times. Standardizing protocols such as NVMe have expedited the removal of a good deal of the latency delaying software stack. XPoint memory from Intel/Micron decreases latency again by 10 to 100 times. The idea of loading entire databases into the Memory Channel DRAM DIMMs to support In-Memory and Real-Time Analytics requires the Dynamic RAM memory to be backed up with nonvolatile memory to insure against loss of data during a power outage incident (NVDIMMs).

New NVDIMM memory designs are in progress that not only increase the backup density but also expand the nonvolatile memory to 4 to 16 times beyond the DRAM capacity for low latency system use. The resulting “expanded memory space” NVDIMM contain an on-board controller that shadows the DRAM memory access, bursting data from a prefetch buffer when a DRAM main memory miss is registered thus bringing ever more low latency memory capacity to the server’s multi-core processors at reduced cost. In short, the conquest of latency and depth of the memory channel are seen as major accelerators for tomorrows Enterprise and Cloud servers for In-Memory Database and Real-Time Analytics.

The introduction of the NVMe-oF standard protocol for All-Flash-Arrays is accelerating their development and market acceptance - this fulfills the need for low latency storage closely coupled to the In-Memory NVDIMM memory arrays. The commercial availability of XPoint devices from Micron Technology (QuantX) are currently under consideration for future All-XPoint-Arrays – a new category offering a level of near DRAM performance for system access to multi-terabyte memory arrays. WebFeet’s demand forecast expects these arrays to remain in short supply for an extended period through the year 2020. A wave of new product announcements is expected in this category through 2018.

The list becomes less clear when it comes to implementing Cognitive Computing. The greatly reduced average latency achieved through enlarging the size of both DRAM and nonvolatile memory on NVDIMMs appears sufficient for the time being. A standing issue with the expanded Memory Channel is how it will impact the capability of running AI applications. System partitions already surround server based applications of which Nvidia’s DGX-1 and Googles TPU TensorFlow Pods are representative. The implication is that these lead AI application engines are being run as Application Servers and have yet to be woven into the hyperscale space. Intel’s Xeon Phi based servers are intended to be the first to integrate closely coupled MPP (Massively Parallel Processing) with enlarged persistent memory channels (NVDIMMs). The potential of Intel’s solution remains undelivered at this writing – it does, however, bring a greater range of AI applications to a wider installed base (upgrade market). What is still unsettling to many is the fact that there is currently no real candidate methodology for the inclusion of AI technology into hyperscale systems. Building AI servers is one solution but WebFeet’s analysis indicates that it is still a “bag on the side” instead of being an integral part of a massively parallel compute model.  

From a computing architectural perspective, WebFeet recognizes that the entire eco-system (sensors, gateways, edge, and cloud/data center) are required to run at, or very near to Real-Time to remain competitive. Software layers, large memory, virtual loading of processors, solid state storage and fast interconnect enable today's von Neumann computing databases. Unfortunately, the architecture is rapidly becoming unable to process the ever-increasing data volumes. Lead research now recognizes that change must also begin with the agents of source data. The use of pattern processing at the endpoints not only improves the quality of the data but also reduces the quantity of information exchange necessary to maintain autonomy and integration into the Internet of Things.

Current AI edge solutions run the gamut from In-Memory to a USB stick covering a wide range of capabilities and power requirements. WebFeet views this market as being segmented into multiple categories, which range from being power limited (mobile) to rack mounted hyperscale Cloud and Enterprise application servers. The need to reduce power by orders of magnitude while increasing the device level cognitive span represents a major industry challenge to the implementation of neuromorphic equipped devices and systems. A forward solution path involving persistent resistive memory and persistent gate level technologies is viewed by WebFeet Research as having a high probability of providing the technology base necessary to achieve low cost, low power and the high availability required for low end and the mid-range segments. 

Cognitive Computing systems that mimic the way the human brain works are thought by many to still be in the early stages of development. An interesting scenario has developed which may completely shatter this attitude. Several low-profile, long term research efforts underway for well over a decade are now nearing their market entry milestones. These systems are based on principles of the human neocortex and represent the first semiconductor devices able to perform near real-time learning and pattern identification on heterogeneous data streams. Webfeet forecasts that these market entries will radically change the complexion of what now is considered to be the High Performance Cognitive Computing market within the next several years. These entries will not only spawn the ability to process vast amounts of heterogeneous data but will, in addition, be able to attain predictive, temporal time sequenced data event extraction (something only dreamed of at present) again, all within the next several years. WebFeet projects this same technology will produce a major revision in how the semiconductor market responds to Artificial Intelligence, especially where the von Neumann architecture intersects the memory-like architecture of pattern computing.

WebFeet’s research in this area provides both qualitative and quantitative analysis of this major architectural change.  WebFeet has developed application models that tracks and forecasts

Flash and NVM at each stage of the eco-system:

Sensors - emNVM and standalone NVM components

Gateways - emNVM, NVM components, EFD (Embedded Flash Drives - eMMC, UFS)

Edge devices - NVM components, EFD and emSoC (Memory in Module), SSDs

Cloud/Data Center - NVM components, EFD, SSD, NVDIMM, AFA (All Flash Arrays), AXA (All XPoint Arrays)

WebFeet provides focused discussions and studies on the trends, technical requirements, and market sizing for automotive, IoT, Edge: Mobile, Cloud/Enterprise and other emerging applications. We also include analyses and forecasts on the viability and when the emerging NVM technologies will reach commercial production and for which application. Finally, WebFeet has an In-Memory Database Computing Research Service that explores the transition from von Neumann computing (symbol) to Cognitive Computing (pattern) and Artificial Intelligence with its impact on semiconductors, especially memory and logic. Since, these are on-going topics we would like to engage in bi-monthly forum to provide you with discussions on our written reports, debriefings from trade shows, company releases and targeted research.

Memory Shortages bode well for DRAM, NAND and NOR Vendors in 2017

Flash Memory Components 2016 Market Revenues Improved to $37B, 3D NAND awakes, XPoint Delayed

Monterey, CA - March 29, 2017 – Not since 2000, have the memory suppliers been in an undersupply situation since 2H 2016 is increasing memory prices for a number of reasons.  NAND vendors are producing 2D (planar) NAND at full capacity, while concurrently making the costly shift in production to 3D NAND. DRAM has been so hot that the Big Three (Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron) are shrinking their lithography below 1x and 1y, while maintaining their production at capacity. Other foundries, like the memory manufacturers, are also running at capacity, trying to maintain balance with IoT, M-2-M, mobile and computing demands. Even the NOR Flash market saw a reversal of 15+ years of market declines has been caught in the allocation/shortage scenario. Yet, with all this current production building additional capacity takes time and has been fraught with technology hurdles that slowdown bit increases.  

Although the NOR market is around 5% of NAND, NOR’s challenges represent a microcosm of the larger Flash and memory markets.  With the stronger demand for SoC (System on Chip) to satisfy the IoT and edge terminal requirements, foundries and ODMs are shifting their wafer mix away from standalone memories. These SoCs are also being built at lithography nodes below 40nm, where most embedded NOR Flash cannot be built. Consequently, these SoCs will need KGD and standalone serial NOR components at 512Kbit-256Mbit densities and larger to fulfill the IoT system memory requirements. In China, GigaDevice who supplies serial NOR is caught in a wafer allocation squeeze in not getting enough serial Flash wafers from their foundry who is making more SoCs (that need serial NOR). Winbond who makes both DRAM and NOR/NAND has been riding the higher price DRAM wave and has limited any additional wafer allocations to NOR. Micron has been rumored to have shut down NOR production at their Singapore fab in favor of NAND, which removes some NOR wafer capacity. Cypress the NOR market leader is gradually moving their emphasis from commodity standalone NOR to a IoT systems memory module especially for the automotive market.  Finally, Macronix has regained more NOR market presence in allocating more NOR wafer production is still facing long lead times since demand is ever increasing on the constrained industry supply. The net effect is NOR and other memory prices are increasing with supply constraints and vendors are on allocation for the foreseeable future.

In consolidating its annual results of each Flash memory vendor’s shipments, WebFeet Research found the 2016 Flash memory market to be $36.8 billion, an increase of 10% from 2015.  A substantial increase in 2016 revenues came from the NAND Flash market with a 10.7% growth rate, while the NOR market contracted flatly from 2015 by only -1.8 %. Samsung was the perennial 2016 revenue market leader for all NV Memories and NAND, Cypress (Spansion) established itself as the NOR Flash and the NVRAM market leader, while Macronix regained the serial NOR leadership position.

The 2016 Non  Volatile Memory Market Shares by Vendor report discusses the impact of the mergers and acquisitions on the memory market, qualifies the migration of planar to 3D NAND, quantifies how fast the emerging NVM are growing including STT-MRAM and XPoint as well as the reemergence of RRAM and NRAM, and presents two forecasts for serial EEPROM showing the impact (slow initial adoption) of the Internet of Things (IoT) and its aggressive scenario.  

This 2016 Non Volatile Memory Market Shares by Vendor report, CS700MS-2017, includes market shares by vendor for total Non Volatile Memory, NAND Flash, NOR Flash, serial NOR Flash, total EEPROM, serial EEPROM, parallel EEPROM, OTP ROM (EPROM and Mask ROM), and NVRAM (NVSRAM, RTC, MRAM, FeRAM, PCM, XPoint, RRAM, NRAM and Others).  Annual revenue forecasts are provided from 2015-2022 for the EEPROM, OTP ROM, and NVRAM markets. In addition, the NVSRAM market shares are broken out by vendor for Real Time Clocks (RTC) and NVSRAM from 2011-2016.  This report, CS700MS-2017, is available for $2.5K and for providers of the market share data they can obtain the report with a $500 discount.  WebFeet Research also has forecast the serial EEPROM (conservative and aggressive) and the NVSRAM (nvSRAM, RTC) from 2014-2022 by density for revenue, units, and ASPs, and for the serial EEPROM by interface type.  Each of these additional forecasts are priced at $500 and come in excel format. 

WebFeet Research, located in Monterey, California, provides business consulting and market research services in the memory and storage markets, with emphasis on flash memory components, EFDs, SSDs, Persistent Memory and In-Memory Computing/Cognitive Computing.

Contact:  WebFeet Research at 831-869-8274 or alan.niebel@web-feetresearch.com or www.WebFeetresearch.com

TBD

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WFR's New SSD Market Analysis – NVMe now, NVDIMM coming

How are high performance SSDs impacting the Enterprise, Client and Commercial applications? 

Who is pushing the edge of SSD and Controllers: intelligent processing of NVMe storage, compression and Object storage?

MONTEREY, CA., January 16, 2017 – As the SSD market enters 2017, the long-anticipated rollout of All Flash Arrays featuring NVMe is finally finding traction at the high end of the enterprise market. Making the transition from SATA and SAS to PCIe and NVMe has been fraught with delays in standardizing the NVMe protocols and the development of an Ethernet- type fabric based on the NVMe protocol (NVMf).  Overall, the SSD market has grown significantly in all three markets: enterprise, client and commercial reaching a market volume of $41 billion by 2021. With the adoption of new interfaces like NVMe and the Memory Channel, and embracing emerging media like 3D NAND and Persistent Memory (ReRAM / XPoint) the industry is undergoing a transformation. The old computing storage model is unable to keep up with the amount of data needed to be stored. It needs to merge storage into memory in order to process in real time more complex data, diverse data types and much higher volume of data anticipated through 2021.

Even though NAND-Flash based solid-state-disk drives perform at several orders of magnitude higher than hard-disk-drives they suffer from the same non-deterministic inadequacies as compared to solutions based on XPoint memory. Flash memory based SSDs suffer the indeterminate delay inserted by the Flash Translation Layer in its production of the of physical block addresses. This is one reason that All-Flash-Array architects like Pure Storage desire additional physical control at the Flash Translation Layer. Additional storage system functions such as deduplication, compression, error coding, power-on fill, data recovery ops, checkpointing, and scrubbing are further accelerated by this approach.

WebFeet Research, Inc., an industry leading Non Volatile Memory and Storage market research firm, released the twelfth annual report Solid State Drives (SSD) Markets and Applications 2017 report, SS300SSD-2017. This report concentrates on the enterprise market with the emergence of PCIe, NVMe (U.2 and M.2) and NVDIMM SSDs as well as quantifying the client and commercial markets.  It addresses the difficulty of migrating from HDD to SSD and to Hybrid and All Flash storage systems while advancing the ‘intelligent processing’ of memory and storage.

For the executive, marketing, or finance professional this report is vital. When combined with the SSD and Controller SWOT report, SS350SWOT-2016, the reader will have a comprehensive view of the SSD market from the forecast to knowing which companies are providing the latest in SSD and controller offerings. 

About WebFeet Research   

Headquartered in Monterey, California, WebFeet Research provides business consulting and market research services in the memory and storage markets, with a focus on nonvolatile memory and solid state storage technologies. For further information, please contact:

Alan Niebel

WebFeet Research, Inc

w3.webfeetresearch.com

alan.niebel@web-feetresearch.com